Immigrants and Our Future
The current immigration debate has gotten under my skin. It is one thing when the anti-immigrant think tank, Center for Immigration Studies is given time on NPR. But it is another thing when even liberals like Paul Krugman are bemoaning the impact of immigrants on the American economy – citing studies that show that immigrants reduce the wages of Americans with less than a high school degree by 8 percent.
Hundreds of thousands of immigrants marching in streets across the country, as well as numerous human rights advocates and scholars, have given voice to the inalienable human rights of immigrants and the contributions immigrants make to US communities every day. NELP's Immigrant Worker Project asserts that protecting of rights of all who work in the United States regardless of their immigration status upgrades the working conditions of us all. These arguments should be sufficient to turn the tide for immigration reform, but to make matters worse those who say that immigrants will weaken U.S. prosperity have it wrong.
From my perspective, immigrants are crucial to the future of the U.S. economy. President Bush has skewed the debate by stating that immigration reform is needed to “match willing workers with willing employer on a job Americans won't do.” It has caused some progressives to claim that more Americans would do entry level jobs if the wage were higher or if employers were forced to hire people with criminal records and others on the margins if immigrants were not available.
I think we need to look at a reframing the question. “Immigrants are needed so the U.S. will continue to have a vibrant workforce to continue robust growth and support an aging society.” What do I mean? The demographic changes in the U.S. are staggering. In 2000, just 12 percent of the U.S. population was 65 and over. Because of the impact of the baby boom generation, by 2010 this figure rises to 19 percent and by 2030, it doubles to 25 percent. Everyone knows what this means – declining payroll tax revenue for social security and Medicaid and strains on our healthcare system.
According to the population reference board, fertility for white non-Hispanics in the U.S. is just 1.86—meaning that this segment of the population is currently failing to replace itself and won’t provide a workforce equivalent to its current generation.. In this context, immigration is the key counterweight. An aging generation will require health care workers, building service workers, retail workers and many other types of places where an aging generation can spend its accumulated wealth. Legal immigrants with a clear pathway to citizenship will be eager to fill these jobs.
Brought above the table, the wages of immigrant workers will be properly taxed and invested in the infrastructure of the nation. If labor laws and employment protections are very clearly extended to immigrants and are agressively enforced, employers won't be able to take advantage of immigrants to lower working standards and wages. (Which makes it important not to create two-tier guest worker programs). With opportunities to become citizens, immigrants will be able to climb a ladder from entry level and use the talents they have to become entrepreneurs or professionals and enhance economic growth. With opportunities for education, a second generation of immigrants will further add to the human capital of the economy. In a climate of growth, native born Americans (especially those with access to education) will benefit from opportunities to provide value-added goods and services to a working population eager to spend their wages.
In essence, immigration can help turn an economic challenge into an economic opportunity. It is wrong to view economy as a fixed pie, with immigrants only taking from native-born workers. The economy is a vibrant and changing system needing inputs – and immigrants will provide the people power the nation desperately needs.
What is the alternative? Other industrialized nation’s (Japan and Germany) have already been experiencing declining fertility – Japan’s fertility rate is below 1.3. Declining fertility hampers economic growth. Until recently, Japan’s real GDP was growing at less than 1% and Germany was pleased to be growing at a 1% rate. What do people with money do when the economy is not growing? They save it instead of spend it – because they are worried about their pensions not being there fully for them. With less economic activity, young people struggle to find good jobs and parents have to invest more of their wealth in caring for their families. Once you imagine a scenario in the U.S. with cuts to Social Security and Medicare caused by decreasing payroll tax revenue and coming on top of already reduced private pensions, it is not hard to foresee such a down cycle in the U.S. mid century.
Germany has addressed some of its workforce needs through immigration – largely through guest worker programs. However, because such programs have not provided pathways to citizenship, immigrants have not been integrated well into society. In economic terms, the human capital has not developed and Germany has not gotten the new generation of innovators and consumers it needs. In social terms, the results have been social stratification.
Given our history, the argument for comprehensive immigration reform and opportunities for citizenship for undocumented immigrants already her should not be hard to make. Despite dire predictions by the nativists of the time, Irish, Jews, Italians and numerous other immigrants provided a large surge to the working class of the early 20th century and eventually the middle class mid-century. Living in New York City, it is easy to see that Asians, Caribbeans, Latinos and numerous other groups are striking forward on that same path despite major obstacles. If we could all see the plain truth, we’d be closer to enjoying shared prosperity.
Resources:
Several reports have documented the economic benefits provided by immigrants
Principles for an Immigration Policy to Strengthen and Expand the American Middle Class: A Primer for Policymakers and Advocates, Drum Major Institute outlines how labor protections and immigration reform work together to expand the middle class.
Undocumented Immigrants in Georgia:Tax Contribution and Fiscal Concerns, Georgia Budget and Policy Institute, articulates a methodology for demonstrating the value in other states
Undocumented workers are taxpayers too, Oregon Center for Public Policy
Immigrants in the economy, resources compiled by the National Immigration Forum
The Changing Face of Massachusetts, MassINC and the Center for Labor Market Studies
Hundreds of thousands of immigrants marching in streets across the country, as well as numerous human rights advocates and scholars, have given voice to the inalienable human rights of immigrants and the contributions immigrants make to US communities every day. NELP's Immigrant Worker Project asserts that protecting of rights of all who work in the United States regardless of their immigration status upgrades the working conditions of us all. These arguments should be sufficient to turn the tide for immigration reform, but to make matters worse those who say that immigrants will weaken U.S. prosperity have it wrong.
From my perspective, immigrants are crucial to the future of the U.S. economy. President Bush has skewed the debate by stating that immigration reform is needed to “match willing workers with willing employer on a job Americans won't do.” It has caused some progressives to claim that more Americans would do entry level jobs if the wage were higher or if employers were forced to hire people with criminal records and others on the margins if immigrants were not available.
I think we need to look at a reframing the question. “Immigrants are needed so the U.S. will continue to have a vibrant workforce to continue robust growth and support an aging society.” What do I mean? The demographic changes in the U.S. are staggering. In 2000, just 12 percent of the U.S. population was 65 and over. Because of the impact of the baby boom generation, by 2010 this figure rises to 19 percent and by 2030, it doubles to 25 percent. Everyone knows what this means – declining payroll tax revenue for social security and Medicaid and strains on our healthcare system.
According to the population reference board, fertility for white non-Hispanics in the U.S. is just 1.86—meaning that this segment of the population is currently failing to replace itself and won’t provide a workforce equivalent to its current generation.. In this context, immigration is the key counterweight. An aging generation will require health care workers, building service workers, retail workers and many other types of places where an aging generation can spend its accumulated wealth. Legal immigrants with a clear pathway to citizenship will be eager to fill these jobs.
Brought above the table, the wages of immigrant workers will be properly taxed and invested in the infrastructure of the nation. If labor laws and employment protections are very clearly extended to immigrants and are agressively enforced, employers won't be able to take advantage of immigrants to lower working standards and wages. (Which makes it important not to create two-tier guest worker programs). With opportunities to become citizens, immigrants will be able to climb a ladder from entry level and use the talents they have to become entrepreneurs or professionals and enhance economic growth. With opportunities for education, a second generation of immigrants will further add to the human capital of the economy. In a climate of growth, native born Americans (especially those with access to education) will benefit from opportunities to provide value-added goods and services to a working population eager to spend their wages.
In essence, immigration can help turn an economic challenge into an economic opportunity. It is wrong to view economy as a fixed pie, with immigrants only taking from native-born workers. The economy is a vibrant and changing system needing inputs – and immigrants will provide the people power the nation desperately needs.
What is the alternative? Other industrialized nation’s (Japan and Germany) have already been experiencing declining fertility – Japan’s fertility rate is below 1.3. Declining fertility hampers economic growth. Until recently, Japan’s real GDP was growing at less than 1% and Germany was pleased to be growing at a 1% rate. What do people with money do when the economy is not growing? They save it instead of spend it – because they are worried about their pensions not being there fully for them. With less economic activity, young people struggle to find good jobs and parents have to invest more of their wealth in caring for their families. Once you imagine a scenario in the U.S. with cuts to Social Security and Medicare caused by decreasing payroll tax revenue and coming on top of already reduced private pensions, it is not hard to foresee such a down cycle in the U.S. mid century.
Germany has addressed some of its workforce needs through immigration – largely through guest worker programs. However, because such programs have not provided pathways to citizenship, immigrants have not been integrated well into society. In economic terms, the human capital has not developed and Germany has not gotten the new generation of innovators and consumers it needs. In social terms, the results have been social stratification.
Given our history, the argument for comprehensive immigration reform and opportunities for citizenship for undocumented immigrants already her should not be hard to make. Despite dire predictions by the nativists of the time, Irish, Jews, Italians and numerous other immigrants provided a large surge to the working class of the early 20th century and eventually the middle class mid-century. Living in New York City, it is easy to see that Asians, Caribbeans, Latinos and numerous other groups are striking forward on that same path despite major obstacles. If we could all see the plain truth, we’d be closer to enjoying shared prosperity.
Resources:
Several reports have documented the economic benefits provided by immigrants
Principles for an Immigration Policy to Strengthen and Expand the American Middle Class: A Primer for Policymakers and Advocates, Drum Major Institute outlines how labor protections and immigration reform work together to expand the middle class.
Undocumented Immigrants in Georgia:Tax Contribution and Fiscal Concerns, Georgia Budget and Policy Institute, articulates a methodology for demonstrating the value in other states
Undocumented workers are taxpayers too, Oregon Center for Public Policy
Immigrants in the economy, resources compiled by the National Immigration Forum
The Changing Face of Massachusetts, MassINC and the Center for Labor Market Studies
posted by Andrew Stettner at 5:44 AM
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